Future of the UK

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is dead. That's a bold statement to make, but it's a statement being made by more and more people, regardless of their views on the idea. Scotland has been the obvious indicator of the truth of this idea in recent times, with the independence referendum in 2014 giving a result of 45% in favour of independence. Whilst Scotland did vote to remain a part of the UK, the fact that 45% wished to leave clearly highlights that things cannot stay the way they are. Since that referendum levels of support for independence have not fallen, and indeed the SNP (the main independence supporting party in Scotland) won 56 out of 59 Westminster seats, whilst independence supporting parties won a majority of seats in the Scottish Parliamentary Elections. It seems only a matter of time before Scotland breaks free from this union, and the consequences of that could destroy the union forever.

The EU referendum produced a narrow victory for the Leave Campaign, with 52% voting to leave. However in Scotland voters chose to remain by a stunning 62% to a 38% vote for leaving. Every voting in area in Scotland voted to remain, in stark contrast to the vast majority of England and Wales, which saw votes to leave at 53.4% and 52.5% respectively. One of the key themes in the Better Together campaign during the independence referendum was that a vote to remain in the UK was the only way to guarantee continued membership of the EU, and yet now despite Scotland voting to remain in the EU it seems that the UK is going to drag them out. This startling reality means that Scotland is almost certain to favour independence within the next 5 years, whether that is before or after the UK officially leaves the EU is up for discussion, although I feel that the SNP and government of Scotland is likely to wait until after Article 50 is triggered and before the UK leaves the EU within two years of that, so that Scotland can remain in the EU whilst the rest of the UK leaves. I firmly support the idea of an independent Scotland, as does the sister party of my own, the Scottish Greens, who campaigned for independence two years ago and who continue to believe it is the best route forward for Scotland. As a communist many would expect me to support a federal but United Kingdom, as the working class should be united and fighting the establishment together to bring about a socialist republic rather than supporting nationalism that can only further divides. Indeed most communists either supported Scotland remaining in the UK or simply abstained from making a decision, however I fundamentally disagree with this idea. Whilst ethno-nationalism is abhorrent and we must fight it, I believe that civic nationalism can have a place in the short term. Rather than dividing people on the basis of race, it aims to secure and devolve powers to a particular region or nation, on the basis that people in an area should have a say on what happens in that area, rather than having politicians from Westminster that are completely detached from Scotland (in this instance being able to make vital decisions). I see civic nationalism and independence for Scotland as a vital step toward giving more power to ordinary people rather than distant and out of touch politicians, and it is for that reason I also support independence for Wales and England.

Another nation in the UK that voted to remain and now has an uncertain future is Northern Ireland, which voted to remain 55.8%, much to the delight of Sinn Féin and other Irish republicans and nationalists. Sinn Féin, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have now all called for an eventual Irish Unity Poll, as the north relies heavily on the open border with the Republic, which is in the EU, and leaving the EU could greatly threaten the economic and social stability of the north. In the past few years it has been increasingly clear that people are moving away from the old Unionist/Nationalist divide, as there are increased vote shares for parties like the Greens, People Before Profit, and Alliance that are not easily placed into one of the two camps. This means that opposition to either being a part of Ireland or a part of the UK is softening, and many younger voters are therefore likely to support whichever option brings greatest economic benefit. It is therefore in my view almost inevitable that sooner or later the island of Ireland will constitute one nation. To prevent resentment from unionists however it is vital that conciliatory measures are taken, and I therefore believe that the province of Ulster should be given its own devolved Parliament, along with the other provinces of Leinster, Connaught, and Munster. This will help ensure that more power is given to people directly, and help prevent tensions between the Protestant majority north and the Catholic majority south, which was the reason for the divide in the first place.

Wales on the other hand has a much less certain future, as there is little sign of great support for independence, and it is more likely that England and Wales will simply remain united along with Cornwall in the near future. Whilst I do support independence for Wales, a national assembly for Cornwall and regional parliaments in England to increase devolution and further power to people directly, I think that simple reality contradicts these hopes in the immediate future. Despite this I do think that with hard work and determination great things can be achieved, and even with Wales remaining in a political union with England, the United Kingdom as we know it is over. Yet another era in the history of these isles is coming to an end, and it will be interesting to see what happens next.